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  • Writer's picturePeak Frameworks Team

Unlocking the Power of CAGR: A Key Metric for Investment Evaluation

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What is CAGR?

Investors use various metrics to measure an investment's financial performance, including ROI, IRR, and CAGR. Among these measures, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is one of the most commonly used.

CAGR

CAGR is a measure of the rate of return on an investment over a specific period, typically more than one year. It is the average annual growth rate of an investment's value, assuming that the investment's value grows at a constant rate each year. It helps investors compare investments with different holding periods and provides a clear picture of an investment's long-term growth rate.

How To Calculate CAGR

To calculate CAGR, the following formula is used:

CAGR = (Ending Value / Beginning Value)^(1 / Number of Years) - 1

For example, suppose an investor invests $10,000 in a mutual fund, and after five years, the fund has grown to $15,000. Using the formula, the CAGR of the investment over the five-year period is:

CAGR = ($15,000 / $10,000)^(1/5) - 1 = 8.14%

Therefore, the investment grew at an average annual rate of 8.14% over the five-year period.

Why is CAGR Important in Finance?

CAGR is essential in finance because it helps investors evaluate investments over a long period, typically more than one year. It is especially useful for comparing investments with different holding periods or where returns vary from year to year.

For example, suppose an investor has two investment options: Investment A has an annual return of 10% for five years, while Investment B has an annual return of 15% for three years. In this scenario, comparing the two investments' returns based on their annual rate of return will not provide an accurate picture.

Instead, using CAGR, the investor can compare the two investments' performance accurately. Investment A's CAGR is 8.14%, while Investment B's CAGR is 13.23%. This means that Investment B has a higher long-term growth rate than Investment A, despite its shorter holding period.

Additionally, CAGR is useful in forecasting an investment's future performance. It helps investors determine if an investment is growing at a steady rate or if its growth rate is fluctuating, which can help in making informed investment decisions.

Advantages and Disadvantages of CAGR

CAGR has several advantages and disadvantages, which investors should consider when evaluating investments.

Advantages:

  • Provides a clear picture of an investment's long-term growth rate

  • Useful for comparing investments with different holding periods or where returns vary from year to year

  • Helps investors forecast an investment's future performance

  • Helps identify steady growth or fluctuations in an investment's growth rate

Disadvantages:

  • Assumes that an investment's value grows at a constant rate each year, which may not be accurate for all investments

  • Does not consider compounding effects on returns

  • Not suitable for evaluating investments with varying cash flows or when the holding period is less than a year

Real-world Examples

Real-world examples of CAGR can be seen in the stock market. For instance, the S&P 500 index's CAGR from 2011 to 2020 was 13.6%, which means that investors who invested in the index during this period had an average annual return of 13.6%. This demonstrates the index's long-term growth rate and the potential benefits of investing in the stock market.

S&P 500 CAGR

Another example is Tesla, the electric car company. In 2011, Tesla's market capitalization was $3.5 billion, while in 2021, its market capitalization reached over $800 billion. Using the CAGR formula, the company's CAGR over the ten-year period was 49.1%. This indicates that Tesla has grown at a high average annual rate over the ten-year period, making it an attractive investment opportunity for investors.

Conclusion

CAGR is a vital metric for investors in evaluating an investment's performance over a long period. It is useful for comparing investments with different holding periods, forecasting an investment's future performance, and identifying steady growth or fluctuations in an investment's growth rate.

However, it is not suitable for evaluating investments with varying cash flows or when the holding period is less than a year. Investors should consider CAGR's advantages and disadvantages when evaluating investments and use it in conjunction with other metrics to make informed investment decisions.

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